Tournament Field Projections, 3/14/08

Does anybody really want to be in this tournament? There were some bad, inexplicable losses by teams like Baylor, Florida, UMass, and Ole Miss on Thursday. At this rate, the bubble is going to get bigger, and teams once given up for dead may be alive on Selection Sunday. What happened on Thursday? And, how does it affect who is in or out of the tournament?

Teams with automatic bids to date:
Atlantic Sun: Belmont
Big Sky: Portland State
Big South: Winthrop
Colonial: George Mason
Horizon: Butler
Ivy: Cornell
Metro Atlantic: Siena
Missouri Valley: Drake (Illinois State should get an at-large bid)
Northeast: Mt. St. Mary’s
Ohio Valley: Austin Peay
Southern: Davidson
Summit: Oral Roberts
Sun Belt: Western Kentucky (South Alabama should get an at-large bid)
West Coast: San Diego (Gonzaga and St. Mary’s should get at-large bids)

Reviews and comments on conferences still duking it out:

ACC
In: North Carolina, Duke, Clemson, Miami, Virginia Tech
UNC is ranked #1 in the country and won the regular season in the ACC. What counts on Tobacco Road, however, is the ACC Tournament, the nation’s oldest post-season tournament. UNC, Duke, and Clemson are lead-pipe locks. Miami got a win Thursday to solidify its position. The ‘Canes now play Virginia Tech, who needs a win or two this week to cinch a bid for themselves.

America East
In: Winner of conference championship game
Either Maryland-Baltimore County or Hartford will qualify for their first NCAA tournament with a win. UMBC won the regular season and will thus host the championship game against Hartford.

Atlantic 10
In: Xavier
On the bubble: UMass, St. Joseph’s, Temple
Xavier is not on the Atlantic coast, and the conference has more than 10 teams, but the X-men are a sure thing for the NCAA tournament. Xavier finished off the Dayton Flyers on Thursday, 74-65. UMass blew a big lead in a loss to Charlotte, and will be sweating bullets on Sunday. St. Joseph’s and Temple are squarely on the bubble, but are still alive in this tournament. Based on past history of regular season champions in this conference, I’d be shocked if Xavier won this post-season tournament.

Big 12
In: Texas, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Baylor, Texas A&M
The Big 12 is strong this year. UT and KU still have a slight chance for #1 seeds. OU and K-State are safely in the tournament. Baylor is still barely in the tournament despite an embarrassing double-overtime loss to Colorado. Texas A&M got a win over Iowa State to stay alive in the Big 12 tournament and in the national picture. The Ags need a win over Kansas State to feel better going into Selection Sunday.

Big East
In: Georgetown, Louisville, Notre Dame, Marquette, Connecticut, West Virginia, Pittsburgh, Villanova
16 teams are just way too many for one conference. This group of schools would probably squeeze out a couple more bids if they weren’t in the same conference. Villanova stayed alive for a bid, and knocked Syracuse out of the running with a big win Wednesday at the Garden before losing to Georgetown on Thursday. Nova probably played itself into the tournament. The rest of the Big East tournament will play a role in seeding, as all the remaining teams should be in the Big Dance next week. West Virginia got a big win over UConn today, and Pittsburgh got a good win over Louisville. These teams will use the next couple of days to try to improve their seeding and to increase the cash flow of the conference.

Big Ten
In: Wisconsin, Purdue, Indiana, Michigan State, Ohio State
This league is pretty mediocre at the bottom, but has some pretty good teams at the top. Ohio State has done enough at the end of the season to make the tournament, but could use another win over Michigan State on Friday to make themselves fell better.

Big West
In: Post-season tournament champion
UC-Santa Barbara, Cal State-Northridge, and Cal State-Fullerton tied for the regular season title. The tournament is being played at the neutral site of the Anaheim Convention Center, across the street from Disneyland. The winner will be a #15 or #16 seed in the Big Dance.

Conference USA
In: Memphis
Memphis owns this conference, lock, stock, and barrel. They could do their conference a favor by purposely losing in this tournament (on their home court) and allowing another team to earn the automatic bid. That will be this conference’s best chance to get two teams in the NCAA tournament. The league’s 2nd and 3rd seeds, UAB and Houston, were upset on Thursday. UTEP and Tulsa play on Friday for a chance to play (get waxed by) Memphis on network television Saturday for the auto-bid.

Mid-American
In: Kent State
This is always a wide-open, entertaining tournament. Kent State should be in the Big Dance as long as they don’t implode in the post-season tournament. They stayed alive today. The MAC could get a second bid if Kent State gets to the finals and loses.

Mid-Eastern
In: Post-season tournament champion
Morgan State is the regular season champion. Anyone could win this thing. The conference looks strong enough to keep its champion out of the opening-round game, but the winner of this tournament will probably be a #16 seed.

Mountain West
In: BYU, UNLV
On the bubble: New Mexico
BYU won the regular season, and is a lock for the field of 65. UNLV is in my projected field at this time, but barely hung on for a one-point win on their home court against TCU. New Mexico is squarely on the bubble, and did not help themselves with a first round overtime loss to Utah.

Pac-10
In: UCLA, Stanford, Washington State, USC, Arizona State, Oregon
On the Bubble: Arizona
UCLA won the regular season, and is a favorite to win the national championship. This has been a strong year in the Pac 10, and Stanford, Wazzu, and USC have nothing to worry about next Sunday. To this point, this tournament is playing to form. That’s good for the top four teams, and makes the next 72 hours a very nervous time for Arizona State, Oregon, and Arizona. Those three teams lost on Thursday.

Patriot
In: Colgate or American
Let’s see: Toothpaste, or our country? American has knocked on the door in this league for several years, but hasn’t quite made the NCAA tournament. This is their year, with the championship game on their home court. This automatic bid will be determined Friday afternoon in D.C.

SEC
In: Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Mississippi State, Arkansas
There will be a new national champion in college basketball. The Florida Gators will not be around to defend their national championship, having been unceremoniously bounced from the SEC tournament by Alabama. The Gators simply do not have a strong enough profile to gain favor from the selection committee. Ole Miss had a chance to play their way into the Big Dance as well, but lost a heartbreaker in overtime to Georgia. Tennessee can firm up a #1 seed with a strong showing in Atlanta this weekend.

Southland
In: Post-season tournament champion
East division champion Lamar was knocked out of the tournament by UT-Arlington this afternoon. This paves the way for either Sam Houston or Stephen F. Austin to win this tournament. Northwestern State is still alive here, as well.

SWAC
In: Post-season tournament champion
This conference of HBCUs spends December getting hammered for paychecks by bigger-name schools. Alabama State has rebounded to run away with the league and to sport a winning record, if not a high power rating. The winner here stands a good chance of getting an all-expenses paid trip to Dayton, Ohio for the opening round of the NCAA tournament.

WAC
In: Post-season tournament champion
The favorites remain alive here: Nevada, Utah State, Boise State, and New Mexico State.

Last four teams in (rooting hard for teams like Xavier and Kent State): Arizona State, South Alabama, Illinois State, Oregon
Last four teams out (need to have a good week on the court and some favor from the committee): UMass, New Mexico, Arizona, Virginia Commonwealth