Bowl Projections

At this time of year, there is a lot of interest in bowl projections. This is the first of a series of mid-season bowl projections. I am not connected with any administrators or guys in the bowl blazers. I’m just a guy with a computer, an internet connection, and a TV.

This is a wild and crazy season. This is perhaps my favorite college football season of all time due to the randomness and unpredictability. Anything can happen in the next three weeks, and probably will.

There will be a lot of horse trading among the bowls. There will be a lot of teams at 5-7, just missing on bowls. A team can go 6-6 and make it to a bowl only if its conference needs them to fill its bowl tie-ins. According to these projections, there will be two more spots available than eligible teams to fill them. On the other hand, the Big Ten will have three 6-6 teams. The Big Ten will give two teams to other bowls in order to make room for two of their 6-6 teams.

These projections are based on LSU and Oregon remaining in the #1 and #2 spots in the BCS rankings. They also take the following events into account:

Big 12: Missouri defeats Kansas (sorry, even though I love the Fighting Manginos), and loses to Oklahoma in the Big 12 Championship Game.

Big Ten: Ohio State defeats Michigan for the conference title. Also, the conference gives Iowa to the Independence Bowl and Purdue to the Las Vegas Bowl. This creates room for in the Big Ten bowls for Northwestern (Motor City) and Michigan State (Insight).

SEC: LSU wins their remaining games, including the conference championship game. Tennessee wins out, earning the privilege of losing to LSU in the SECCG. Georgia also wins out, and earns a BCS bid due to its 10-2 record and high ranking.

ACC: Virginia defeats Virginia Tech to win its division. Clemson defeats Boston College to win its division. Virginia defeats Clemson in the ACC championship game. Virginia Tech remains high enough in the rankings to earn a BCS bid.

Pac 10: Oregon wins out, earning a spot in the BCS National Championship game. USC defeats Arizona State, earning a return trip to the Rose Bowl.

Big East: West Virginia wins out, earning the BCS spot.

Where’s Hawaii? I project for them to lose to Boise State. Boise will finish just below #12 in the BCS, and will not be ranked higher than a BCS conference champion, barely missing a BCS bowl.

Projections:

BCS NCG: LSU vs. Oregon
Rose: Ohio State vs. USC
Fiesta: Oklahoma vs. Virginia Tech
Orange: Virginia vs. West Virginia
Sugar: Georgia vs. Missouri
Capital One: Michigan vs. Florida
Cotton: Kansas vs. Tennessee
Outback: Illinois vs. Auburn
Gator: Texas vs. Clemson
Holiday: Arizona State vs. Texas Tech
Alamo: Penn State vs. Texas A&M
Chick Fil A: Kentucky vs. Florida State
Sun: Cincinnati vs. California
Insight: Michigan State vs. Nebraska
Texas: Oklahoma State vs. South Florida
Champs Sports: Wisconsin vs. Mississippi State (ACC without enough eligible teams)
Las Vegas: BYU vs. Purdue (Pac 10 without enough eligible teams)
Independence: South Carolina vs. Iowa (Big 12 without enough eligible teams)
Motor City: Northwestern vs. Central Michigan
Music City: Alabama vs. Boston College
Liberty: Arkansas vs. UCF
Emerald: Oregon State vs. Georgia Tech
Humanitarian: Boise State vs. Maryland
Meineke Car Care: Wake Forest vs. Connecticut
International: Rutgers vs. Bowling Green
GMAC: Tulsa vs. Miami, O.
Armed Forces: Houston vs. Air Force
New Orleans: Troy vs. East Carolina
Papajohn’s: Memphis vs. TCU (Big East without enough eligible teams)
Poinsettia: Utah vs. Navy
New Mexico: Fresno State vs. New Mexico
Hawaii: Hawaii vs. Southern Miss

This is very much a jigsaw puzzle, and will definitely change. There is a lot of football left to be played in the next three weeks.