Big Ten commissioner Jim Delany backtracked this week on expansion discussion. It seems that he opened up an entire can of worms when he mentioned it last week.
I think just the opposite is happening. I believe the Big Ten, behind closed doors, is actively searching for a 12th member, preferably in an adjacent state. Now that the Big Ten Network is a factor, the conference needs to expand their footprint. I have seen goofy speculation mentioning schools such as Texas, Tennessee, and Kentucky. I don't look for the Big Ten/Eleven to think that far out of the box.
I do look for the Big Ten to rock the Big 12's world, by peeling off the University of Missouri. This makes sense for several reasons. 1) Missouri is an adjacent state, with two large TV markets in St. Louis and Kansas City. The Big Ten would solidify their place in the St. Louis market with this move. 2) Mizzou has a competitive, but not great athletic program. They provide the ability to generate revenue without providing a huge threat to schools such as Ohio State, Michigan, and Wisconsin. 3) The Big Ten can offer more money, especially with the advent of the Big Ten Network. Unlike the Big 12, the Big Ten shares all television revenue equally among all schools. This would be attractive to Mizzou, especially compared to the Texas-dominated Big 12. 4) The Big Ten is an academic conference, in addition to an athletic conference. The opportunity to participate in prestigious academic research projects with fellow conference members would be too much to pass up.
Missouri would leave more than a century of history behind, as a charter member of the Big 6/7/8 and Big 12. However, this is the 21st century, and money talks.
What would happen to the Big 12? First, this would solidify the Big Ten Network, providing a blueprint for the SEC to start their own network. With this in mind, the SEC would be wise to look toward Texas to add more television sets. This can be done by adding Texas and Texas A&M. A&M would go in a heartbeat. Texas would go where they can generate the most revenue. If this scenario happens, all bets are off. It would not be farfetched for the SEC to expand to 14 or even 16 schools, if there is enough money to justify the move.
The next commissioner of the Big 12 faces the responsibility of keeping the league together. That will be easier said than done.
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4 comments:
Ooooh it's getting juicy. I hope that a bunch of teams jump conferences and mix everything up. I can't wait to see what happens!
Yeah, and the Big 12 is in deep doo-doo if any conference comes after UT with a better offer. I hate UT's guts, but they have more fans, bring bigger TV ratings, and generate more $$$ than anyone.
The Big 12 could survive the loss of Mizzou, as long as they could hold on to the Texas schools.
They would be smart to at least go after Arkansas. I doubt if the Hogs would move over.
The next best choices are Utah, BYU, and TCU, not necessarily in that order, and possibly all three together. TCU doesn't bring any new TV markets, but would bring a strong all-around program (well, except for men's hoops).
These new cable networks are going to drive the next round of conference fruit basket turnover.
TCU doesn't bring any new TV markets, but would bring a strong all-around program (well, except for men's hoops).
It doesn't seem that we can have both. Back when I was in school our b-ball program rocked, but football sucked. Now it's the opposite. Ya can't win!
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The Big 12 is going to have to create its own cable channel to generate the money needed to hold on to its members.
Or, it will have to follow the example of the Rangers, Stars, Astros, and Rockets, by holding FSN Southwest up for ransom, with the threat of creating their own network. Tom Hicks had threatened to create another sports channel in North Texas for the Rangers and Stars. The Astros and Rockets threatened to do the same thing in Houston. FSN Southwest paid significantly more for the rights to all of these teams as a result.
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