Big XII Rumblings, Part 4

Continuing the speculation on Big 12 membership, we now turn to the Big XII South Division.

Once again, I'm not advocating the breakup of the Big 12. These schools are better off with each other than without. But, each school has to explore its own options, in case the Big 12 heads for disaster.

Here are my thoughts on the Texas and Oklahoma schools:

Baylor
2006 Average Football Attendance: 37,080
TV Market: Waco/Temple/Bryan (95) Significant alumni presence in Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, and San Antonio.
Where could they go? Nowhere they would want to go willingly.
What do they have to offer? Honestly? Nothing. They have been competitive in non-revenue sports, including a national championship in women’s basketball in 2005. But, the revenue sports of football and men’s basketball drive the bus.
What’s the holdup? None. This is a very fortunate school. If Baylor alum Ann Richards had not been governor, and Baylor Law alum Bob Bullock had not have been lieutenant governor at the time of the breakup of the old Southwest Conference, Baylor would have most likely been out in the cold during the conference shuffle of the 90’s, and would now be playing football games against Rice before crowds of maybe 10,000. Political pull is all that got Baylor into the conference in the first place. Waco as a market is nothing to write home about, and the school is not nearly as large as its state school brethren. Baylor is glad and lucky to be in the Big 12.

Oklahoma
2006 Average Football Attendance: 84,561
TV Market: Oklahoma City (45) (also brings Tulsa)
Where could they go? SEC
What do they have to offer? One of the top five football programs in the history of college football, now generating more money than ever. Football money drives the success of the rest of the athletic department. OU is a football-crazy school, just like most of the SEC.
What’s the holdup? OU is a charter member of the Southwest Conference, the Big Six/Seven/Eight, and the Big 12. They’ll think twice before they jump. Also, the Oklahoma legislature will keep them from moving unless such a move also benefits Oklahoma State. Finally, as good as OU’s football program is, Oklahoma is still not that big of a state, with only 3 ½ million people, and the #45 and #61 TV markets. Still, they would fit very well with the SEC, if forced to make a move there.

Oklahoma State
2006 Average Football Attendance: 40,954
TV Market: Oklahoma City (45) (also brings Tulsa)
Where could they go? Nowhere, unless the Oklahoma legislature intervenes
What do they have to offer? Nothing, except for T. Boone Pickens’ $165 million donation to improve the stadium and other facilities.
What’s the holdup? Remote location, small state, small markets. They offer nothing Oklahoma doesn’t already offer, without the advantages of a nationally recognized football program. Praying the Big 12 stays together.

Texas
2006 Average Football Attendance: 88,505
TV Market: Austin (52) (also brings the entire state of Texas, including Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, and San Antonio)
Where could they go? Anywhere they want, except independent status. Were unofficially offered membership in the Pac-10 in the 90’s. The SEC and Big 10 would love to have them, also.
What do they have to offer? Everything. Third-largest enrollment in the nation, huge alumni base, more money than Fort Knox. Largest school in second-largest state in the U.S. Exceptional all-around athletic program. Strong academic reputation.
What’s the holdup? They control the Big 12 politically, just as they did the SWC before it. They’re the biggest and baddest out there, and they throw their weight around accordingly. They wouldn’t be able to carry as much weight in another conference, and everyone knows that.

Texas A&M
2006 Average Football Attendance: 80,532
TV Market: Waco/Temple/Bryan (95) (also brings the entire state of Texas, including Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, and San Antonio)
Where could they go? The SEC would love them, and almost had them when the SWC broke up.
What do they have to offer? Almost as much as UT. Large enrollment, large alumni base, almost as much money as UT. The Ags have also built a strong all-around athletic program, and have scoreboard on Texas this past school year in most sports. Strong academic reputation.
What’s the holdup? Political pressure from the Texas Legislature sent them into the Big 12, and it will keep them there, unless UT wants to make a move.

Texas Tech
2006 Average Football Attendance: 50,874
TV Market: Lubbock (147) (also brings west Texas markets of Amarillo, Abilene, Midland/Odessa, Wichita Falls, and a significant presence in Dallas-Fort Worth)
Where could they go? Nowhere they would want to go willingly.
What do they have to offer? If West Texas were its own state, Tech would be its university. But, West Texas is sparsely populated, and is not its own state. Significantly improved facilities, and, for now, the winningest coach in college basketball history.
What’s the holdup? Geography, and limited perceived academic reputation. Third banana in state of Texas, behind UT and A&M. Large institution, but unable to deliver the entire state of Texas to a conference by itself. Praying the Big 12 stays together.