Wednesday, November 01, 2006

College Picks-Week of November 4

We’re in the homestretch, with conference championships, BCS bowls, and coaching jobs on the line. Two BCS conference jobs are already being vacated (North Carolina and Michigan State), with more on the way. We also have a de facto national championship semifinal this week, necessitating the early picks.

Who are these people out there already screaming that a team with one loss should be in the BCS national championship game over an undefeated team from the Big East? If a Big East team escapes undefeated, they will have most likely defeated two other teams with 10 wins, plus at least two other bowl teams. It’s a little early to have this argument, as I still think West Virginia, Louisville, and Rutgers will all defeat each other before it’s all said and done. Plus, Pittsburgh looms as a spoiler for either West Virginia or Louisville. The Big East has proven itself as a legitimate BCS conference. It has improved markedly, especially considering the losses of Miami, Virginia Tech, and Boston College.

Last Week: 13-7 Season: 126-54

Picks for the week:

Oklahoma at Texas A&M: Saturday night at Kyle Field. A&M’s biggest game to date. OU got a huge road win last week at Missouri. The good fortune continues for the Sooners. Pick: OU
Oklahoma State at Texas: OSU came up huge last week at home against Nebraska. The past two years, they have rolled up big leads on Texas, only to lose. Saturday’s game in Austin shouldn’t lack for scoring, either. The Horns can outscore the Pokes, though. Pick: Texas
Missouri at Nebraska: Most likely for the championship of the Big XII North, which is similar to playing for the championship of District 20-5A. Winner has inside track to a game with Texas in Kansas City on the first weekend of December. Nebraska has shown more ineptitude, but has the home field. I can’t pick against the Huskers at home. Pick: NU
Baylor at Texas Tech: Baylor lost a game last week against A&M, and also lost QB Shawn Bell for the season due to injury. This hurts the Bears. Tech blew a lead against the hated Longhorns. Tech salvages some pride here. Pick: Tech
Kansas at Iowa State: KU bounced back with a win last week over the hapless Buffs. Iowa State was thumped by K-State, and coach Dan McCarney’s job is on the line after 12 years in Ames. The Jayhawks are a little better than the ‘Clones. Pick: KU
Kansas State at Colorado: K-State is inconsistent. The Buffs are improving, but competitive, especially for a team with one win. K-State needs one more win to become bowl eligible. They get it here. Pick: KSU
West Virginia at Louisville: The biggest game in the history of Thursday Night Football, as the Mountaineers visit the Pizza Box for a tilt with the undefeated Cardinals. The Cardinals definitely will miss star RB Michael Bush, who was injured in the first game of the year. WVU has rolled over opponents with their spread option attack, featuring RB Steve Slaton. WVU is the real deal. Pick: West Virginia
Maryland at Clemson: Clemson really shot themselves in the foot last week in Blacksburg. The Terps have bounced back from an early-season blowout at West Virginia and are now in contention for a division championship in the ACC. The Tigers bounce back here. Pick: Clemson
Penn State at Wisconsin: Don’t look now, but Wisconsin is a quiet 8-1. Orlando or Tampa will be a very nice trip for the Badgers on New Year’s Day. Badgers win again this week. Pick: Wisconsin
Virginia at Florida State: Florida State is reeling. The vultures are circling in Tallahassee, and are looking for someone’s head on a platter, preferably offensive coordinator Jeff Bowden. His father Bobby will protect him to the utter end, though, and may retire over the whole situation. Meanwhile, the ‘Noles struggle, and may not make a bowl. UVa got a win last week over N.C. State. FSU wakes up this week, and gets a win. Pick: Florida State.
TCU at UNLV: The Passin’ Rebels are in the tank, with no relief in sight, losers of seven in a row. TCU is looking for a late season spark, after a letdown in losses to BYU and Utah. Frogs win here, and it won’t be just Vegas luck. Pick: TCU
LSU at Tennessee: LSU got a raw deal from the SEC schedule makers, with road trips to Auburn, Florida, Tennessee, and an improved Arkansas in the same season. This week, they get the Big Orange. Phat Phil’s team is two points away from an undefeated season and the national championship debate. LSU has run up big margins against lesser competition, but has come up short against quality teams. This game will retain that form. Pick: Tennessee
Georgia at Kentucky: The Bulldogs continue to struggle on the offensive side of the ball. Kentucky has a reasonable shot at a bowl game, with winnable games against Vanderbilt and Louisiana-Monroe remaining. This will be closer than it ought to be, but Georgia has a bit more talent, and better coaching. Pick: Georgia
Washington at Oregon: The Huskies started well, but have now lost four in a row, including overtime losses to Cal and Arizona State. The Ducks are home, and will be more than up for their hated rival. Pick: Oregon
Tulsa at Houston: Big game in Western division of C-USA. Tulsa has been rolling through the conference for the second year in a row. There will be plenty of points scored in this one. Pick: Tulsa
Boston College at Wake Forest: Who would have thought that this game would have division, conference, and BCS implications? How much longer does the roll continue for Wake? We’ll soon find out. BC is just a little better. Pick: BC
Arkansas at South Carolina: The Hogs have rolled since their opening day blowout loss to the other USC. The Gamecocks have come up short in their big home games with Auburn and Tennessee. The third time is the charm for USC-East. Pick: Gamecocks
Arizona State at Oregon State: OSU-West got a huge, huge, huge win last week over USC. Arizona State escaped with an overtime win over Washington. The success continues for the Beavers. Pick: Oregon State
Purdue at Michigan State: How does Michigan State respond after the blowout loss to the Hoosiers and subsequent dismissal of its coaching staff? Good question. Pick: Purdue
Mesa State at Colorado School of Mines: Mesa has two wins, Mines has four. Mines is playing at home. Pick: Colorado School of Mines

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