Friday, August 25, 2006

Projections: SEC

That noise you hear is Phil Fulmer panicking over the latest development in the SEC: His nemesis and worst nightmare, Steve Spurrier, has elevated the South Carolina Gamecocks to the level of Florida, Georgia, and Tennessee. Actually, there's not enough room at the top, as proven by the Vols' 5-6 season last year, and the Gamecocks passed the Vols in year 1 of the Spurrier era. Even bigger things are yet to come.

Urban renewal continues in Gainesville, as the Gators return to the top of the Eastern Division. They hold off Spurrier's Gamecocks toward the end of the season, and win a head-to-head tiebreaker. Georgia looks strong here, as well, but will wind up with losses to both the 'Cocks and the Gators. As for the Vols, they will improve to 7-5, good enough for a winning record and a bowl game. I'm not sure how excited they'll be about the Music City or similar bowl, but it'll be better than their stay home during bowl season last year.

In the West, the three-headed monster of Alabama, Auburn, and LSU lurks again. All three look strong, as usual. Alabama has the slight nod. They play at LSU, where they rarely lose in Tiger Stadium. Of course, Auburn visits Tuscaloosa, where they more than hold their own with the Tide. The Tide squeaks out in the Iron Bowl, and earn a trip to Atlanta for the SECCG (the national championship of the Confederacy), opposite the Gators.

East
Florida 10-2 7-1
South Carolina 10-2 7-1
Georgia 10-2 6-2
Tennessee 7-5 4-4
Vanderbilt 4-8 1-7
Kentucky 3-9 0-8

West
Alabama 10-2 6-2
Auburn 9-3 5-3
LSU 9-3 5-3
Ole Miss 6-6 3-5
Arkansas 5-7 2-6
Mississippi St 4-8 1-7

There are six teams in the conference that can play with anyone in the country: Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, Alabama, Auburn, and LSU. Tennessee will be above average, but not on par with their teams in the recent past. Arkansas opens at home with a loss to USC, and will struggle with the conference heavyweights. I'm afraid Houston Nutt's days there are numbered. Surprisingly, I have Ole Miss with six wins. They have home games against Mississippi State and Vanderbilt, and a favorable non-conference schedule. Vanderbilt is Vanderbilt, and Mississippi State is Mississippi State.

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